Obviously you are a fan of pokies because if not you would not likely be reading this right now, most likely you are seeking some idea and knowledge in understanding the odds and probability of gambling. For some, it is as easy as flipping a coin, wherein it is not weighted one way or the other, the odds of getting either heads or tails are the same that is 1 in 2. This can also be inscribed as a part chance of winning, that is 50%, or as a ratio like1:2.
What you need to grasp is not the actual understanding of mathematics and its probabilities but rather just try to understand it in its most common sense way. We have been asked often about what probability theory is and how it really works. So now we will try our best to explain.
In its basic principle, probability articulates in determining what the odds are, or what the chances are, of an event happening, such as a coin landing with heads facing up when flipped as in the above example, or of winning the lottery, or of drawing a card, or of any other thing you can imagine. We all know that probabilities and odds are usually used when gambling to determine chances of winning, some expert can pretty much assess the probability of an event at all, if you have enough information, whether it is related to gambling or not.
The number you get when you divide the number of ways an event can occur by the total possible number of outcomes in any particular scenario is what you call the probability. Let us say if the event the want to institute the probability of is drawing a black card from a full deck of card, we would need to divide the total number of ways to draw a black card (26 as there are 26 black cards in a full deck) by the total number of possible outcomes, that is, 52 because there is a total number of 52 cards in a full deck (not including jokers). 26 divided by 52 is 0.5, giving us a probability of ½, or 0.5, or 1:2 – the same probability as when we flipped the coin.
You might even be speculating if what is the point of having a calculated theory for something so simple; you would wonder why you would need a formula to work out basic things such as this. Some have been really curious about the logic behind probability theory, and I’ll tell you it has been around for ages. Nevertheless, if you have been playing for a long time now and principally if you have been playing casino games, you will distinguish that most probabilities are not this laid-back to determine. The calculated or arithmetic study of probabilities is relatively current, well if you compare it anyway to the very long history of logical assessment of probabilities. In point, gambling, which has been around since ancient times, was one of the major factors in the growth of probability theory. This essentially pushed people to know with greater accuracy and in more precise detail on what their chances of winning at any given game.
Thus, when people realized these probabilities in gambling they turned to the “mathematicians” or those who are experts in logic who can develop the arithmetic of probability, or what is known as Probability Theory. As with most mathematical approaches to the problems of normal daily life, there are some terms you need to be aware of that are used with different meanings than you might be used to. When mathematicians assess probabilities, they use formulas in which they refer to “events”.
For an overview, an “event” is what you call a situation that is most likely to happen or not happen, it is an occurrence that are being assessed for their probability. Events in probability theory are represented by algebraic variables, usually “A”, and probability is represented by decimal numbers on a continuum from 0 to 1. Thus, the probability (P) of event A (for example, drawing an Ace from a deck of cards) happening is represented in the formula as “P(A)” “p(A)” or “Pr(A)”. An event that is impossible, for example, drawing five kings from a deck of cards, has a probability of zero. An event that is absolutely certain to happen, for example, drawing a card between 2 and ace from a deck without jokers, has a probability of one.
Occasionally we need to compute, analyse the chance of two or more events happening at the same time. This is a little more complex but is still a relatively simple task. It is simply a matter of multiplying together the probabilities of each of the individual events. Let’s say, if we rolled two dice at the same time, the probability of rolling a two on one die is one in six (P=0.1667). This probability of getting a two on the other die is also 0.1667. The probability of rolling the two dice at the same time and getting two on BOTH of them however, is ).1667 x 0.1667. Therefore P=0.027.
You must bear in mind that although it seems less likely to get four on both dice than to get, say, a one and a five for example, this is merely a product of our mind. The odds are more or less identical.
Thus, all of these are all in your mind, a little bit of Luck is a good thing too!